The tax reduction of textile tax reduction enterprises will reduce the price of cotton and cotton yarn
On March 5th, the opening meeting of the Second Session of the 13th National People's Congress was held in the Great Hall of the People in Beijing. The government work report announced that a larger tax cut was implemented. The current 16% tax rate for industries such as manufacturing fell to 13%. Tax reduction and burden reduction have certain positive effects on business operations and profits, and may also play a role in the decline of cotton and cotton yarn prices in the future.
Taking textile enterprises as an example, assuming that the sales price of 1 ton of cotton yarn is about 24,000 yuan/ton, the tax rate before the adjustment of the tax rate is 24000/1.16=20690 yuan/ton, and the sales tax is 20690*16%=3310. yuan / tonne.
After the adjustment, assuming that the cotton yarn sales price has not changed, the cotton yarn excluding the tax price after the adjustment of the tax rate is 24000/1.13=21239 yuan/ton, and the sales need to pay the value-added tax is 21239*13%=2761 yuan/ton, the difference between the two is 549 yuan. /Ton. For the enterprise, the burden reduction is not small. Of course, the above is only a rough calculation.
Future cotton prices are expected to rise
The market is entering the stage of socialized inventory, and cotton prices are expected to rise in the future. According to the USDA's forecast for the new year, global cotton production is expected to increase by 6.9% from the current year to 27,452,200 tons, which is only 0.6% lower than the 27,694,200 tons in 2011/12, which is the second highest point in history. Global cotton production is expected to be higher than consumption in 2019/20, and ending stocks will increase by approximately 217,770 tons; cotton acreage and yield are expected to increase, resulting in a 6.8% increase in total production; global cotton consumption will continue to increase, but is expected to be slightly lower The average growth rate in previous years. The global cotton continued destocking rhythm may be interrupted in 2019/20.
Acrylonitrile prices gradually increase
According to relevant statistics, as of now, Shanghai Secco Acrylonitrile port reference price of 12,700 yuan / ton, East China port spot 寥寥, business offer reference 12,800 yuan / ton or even high prices.
Among the Asia-Pacific spinning nylon stretch fabrics, there is a very special fabric - recycled fabric. The average fabric price is about 15 yuan per meter. The price of this recycled fabric is more than 30 yuan per meter. This fabric has various functions such as moisture wicking, antibacterial, deodorant, and static absorption. It is currently available to high-end brand customers such as Adidas and Nike.
Estimation of PTA capacity from 2019 to 2020
The new capacity of PTA will reach 20.7 million tons in the next three years. It is expected to start production of 6.5 million tons in 2019 and 13.2 million tons in 2020.
It is estimated that the nominal capacity of China's PTA will reach 58.25 million tons in 2019, the actual domestic production capacity of PTA is 43.4 million tons, and the CR5 is 61.2%. The top five and market share of the industry are Yisheng 23.2%/Hengli Petrochemical 15.6%/Fuhai 10.6%/Tongkun Petrochemical 6.4%/Hubin Petrochemical 5.5%, and the number of manufacturers with a capacity of 1 million tons/year has risen to 15;
It is estimated that China's PTA production capacity will reach 71.45 million tons and CR5 will be 58% in 2020. The top five and market share of the industry are Yisheng 23.5%/Hengli Petrochemical 16.2%/Fuhai Chuang 8.6%/Tongkun Petrochemical 5.2%/Huabin The number of producers with 4.5% of petrochemicals and production capacity of over 1 million tons/year has further increased to 18.
As of September 2018, China's polyester yarn industry has a total nominal capacity of 36.34 million tons and CR6 of 51.7%. The top six and nominal capacity market share of the industry are: Tongkun 14.9%, Hengyi 13.7%, Xinfengming 9.1%, Shenghong 5.2%, Hengli 4.8%, Rongsheng 4%. In addition to Shenghong, the top five market share of the polyester yarn industry in the next three years is generally on the rise, and the newly added capacity in the next three years is almost derived from these industry leaders. In the next three years, the polyester yarn industry will add a total of 7.77 million tons of production. Source: Textile Friends Network